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Oil falls as China demand continues to underperform

Brent oil

Brent crude futures were down 65 cents, or 0.9%, at $71.91 a barrel and U.S. WTI crude futures were down 62 cents, or 0.9%, at $68.08

Oil prices dropped on Friday on signs demand in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, continues to underperform amid its uneven economic recovery.

Brent crude futures were down 65 cents, or 0.9%, at $71.91 a barrel by 0450 GMT. U.S. WTI crude futures were down 62 cents, or 0.9%, at $68.08.

For the week, Brent is set to slip 2.7% while WTI is set to slide 3.3%.

While oil prices have somewhat stabilised around the $71.00 level of support this week, the lack of a concrete bullish catalyst suggests that price recovery remains weak for now, said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

The prospect of higher supplies from the U.S. and OPEC+ along with doubts over China’s economic recovery continue to be of concern, while the odds of a December rate cut are now “closer to a coin flip” under a less dovish Fed, Yeap said.

China’s oil refiners in October processed 4.6% less crude than a year earlier, declining year-on-year for a seventh month, amid the closures of some plants and reduced operating rates at smaller independent refiners, data from the NBS showed on Friday.

The drop in run rates occurred as China’s factory output growth slowed last month and demand woes in its property sector showed few signs of abating even though consumer spending rose, government data showed.

Oil prices also dropped this week as major forecasters indicated market fundamentals remained bearish.

The IEA forecast global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, as rising production from the U.S. and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand.

The agency raised its 2024 demand growth forecast by 60,000 bpd to 920,000 bpd, and left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little changed at 990,000 barrels per day.

OPEC this week cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and 2025, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group’s fourth-successive downward revision to its 2024 outlook.

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