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Oil little changed after Biden exit

Oil trades

Brent crude futures slipped 9 cents to $82.54 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures was down 19 cents at $79.94

Oil prices were little changed on Monday after Joe Biden announced he would not seek a second term as U.S. president, while investors watched for more signs that U.S. interest rates could be reduced as early as September.

Brent crude futures slipped 9 cents to $82.54 a barrel by 0933 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 19 cents at $79.94.

Brent crude has remained relatively stable in the last month, staying between $82 and $88 a barrel.

The U.S. Fed is due to review policy next on July 30-31, when investors expect it to keep rates unchanged, though there have been indications that a reduction will happen at the September meeting.

News that President Biden decided on Sunday to abandon his re-election bid was not a major factor for oil markets. He has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the candidate who should face Republican Donald Trump in the November election.

We think the ability of the U.S. president to influence U.S. oil production is probably overrated, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, noting that U.S. output hit record highs last year despite the Biden’s administration’s moves to address climate change.

If anything, a Trump presidency could influence higher demand for oil in the U.S., given his anti-EV stance, Sarkar said.

That could offset some of the support markets have gained from recent OPEC+ production cuts, according to IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

The flipside to unrestricted oil production in the U.S. could well be lower oil prices, which may have the unintended impact of forcing marginal producers to mothball production, Sycamore said.

China’s slower than expected economic growth of 4.7% in the second quarter triggered concerns last week over the country’s demand for oil and continues to weigh on prices.

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