Precise Investors

Sunday, January 29, 2023
Stocks & Shares

Jeremy Grantham warns the S&P 500 will plunge another 40%

S&P 500

That would send the S&P 500 to about 2,880, a level not seen since the March 2020 COVID-19 bear market

Jeremy Grantham of GMO believes the stock market is in a bubble akin to 2000 that is in the process of deflating, according to a Wednesday interview with CNBC.

Grantham said he expects the S&P 500 to fall at least 40% from its peak in what will likely be a multi-year decline for stocks. That would send the S&P 500 to about 2,880, a level not seen since the March 2020 COVID-19 bear market. The S&P 500 is currently down 18% year-to-date, trading at the 3,925 level as of Wednesday afternoon.

On the surface, the current stock market looks similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble given that much of the damage has been concentrated in US tech stocks.

This bubble superficially looks very much like 2000, focused on US tech, led by Nasdaq going to incredible highs, with the opening weakness in Nasdaq, which started to fall along with the Russell 2000 long before the S&P (500) did, Grantham said.

But there are a couple of serious differences between the 2000 dot-com bubble and today’s stock market that scare Grantham.

What I fear is that there are a couple of differences with 2000 that are more serious. One of them is that 2000 was exclusively in US stocks, the bonds were great, the yields were terrific, housing was cheap (and) commodities were well behaved, Grantham said, adding that in comparison to today, 2000 ‘was paradise.’

But commodity prices going through the roof as Russia continues its war against Ukraine, and the fact that raising interest rates from a floor of almost 0% translates into a lot of pain for the bond market.

What you never want to do in a bubble is mess with housing, and we’re selling at a higher multiple of family income than we did at the top of the so-called housing bubble in 2006. In addition, the bond market recently had the lowest lows in 6,000 years of history. In addition, energy (prices) prices have pushed up, (and) metals and food prices are actually on the UN index higher than they have ever been before in real terms, Grantham said.

So we are really messing with all of the assets so this has turned out historically to be very dangerous, Grantham added, pointing to similarities between today and Japan’s massive asset bubble in the late 1980s. Japanese stocks have yet to reclaim the high seen at their peak in 1989.

And while investors are keen to hunt for opportunities in the stock market given that valuations have hit levels not seen in years, Grantham preaches caution, highlighting that the estimated profit margins at most companies will deteriorate as an economic recession materialises.


The articles are for information purposes only and Precise Investors shall not be held responsible for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies within it. Any rules or regulations mentioned within the website are those relevant at the time of publication and may not be the most up-to-date.

Precise Investors does not endorse any of the products or services that appear on it or are linked to it and are not liable for any action that you may take as a result of the content of this website, or losses or damage you may incur doing so.

There is no obligation to purchase anything but, if you decide to do so, you are strongly advised to consult a professional adviser before making any investment decisions.

Please remember that investments of any type may rise or fall and past performance does not guarantee future performance in respect of income or capital growth; you may not get back the amount you invested.

Leave a Reply