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Oil gains ahead of Trump Iran announcement, Asian shares up

Oil has gained ahead of Trump’s announcement on Iran deal while Asian shares stay up

Oil prices were near their highest since late 2014 on Tuesday, ahead of an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump over the country’s nuclear deal with Iran. The market was waiting for the announcement to see if the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal would continue, which fuelled concerns about crude supply.

Asian shares firmed slightly in early trade with technology stocks resilient after generally upbeat earnings despite weakness in the global smartphone market and concerns about more regulation.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures on Monday rose above $70 for the first time since November 2014, having gained more than 18 percent from this year’s low touched in February.

Oil prices later pared some of those gains as traders took profit after Trump confirmed in a tweet that he would announce his decision on the nuclear deal at 1800 GMT on Tuesday.

Senior commodity economist at Nomura Securities, Tatsufumi Okoshi said that the oil market has priced in the high likelihood of Trump withdrawing from the nuclear deal with Iran. If he is going to impose sanctions similar to those the U.S. had in 2012 that would likely to cause a shortage in oil.

In addition, falls in Venezuelan oil production due to problems at the country’s oil company PDVSA also added to the rally.

U.S. crude futures last traded at $70.04 per barrel, down 1.0 percent from Monday’s settlement price.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures stood at $75.62 per barrel, down 0.7 percent, having risen as high as $76.34 on Monday.

Gains in Asian shares were led by technology firms even as caution on Trump’s statement kept many investors on edge.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.2 percent, with information technology shares rising 0.4 percent. Japan’s Nikkei was almost flat.

On Wall Street on Monday, the S&P 500 gained 0.35 percent, boosted by Apple’s sixth straight day of gains.

The combination of higher oil prices, a strong dollar and higher U.S. rates is risky for some emerging market assets as it could significantly worsen their trade balance and also encourage investors to shift funds to higher-yielding U.S. assets.

JPMorgan’s emerging market bond index hit the lowest level in more than a year.

The Indian rupee hit a 15-month low while the Indonesian rupiah hit its lowest level in 2-1/2 years on Monday.

The divergence between developed and emerging markets was also visible in equity prices. Brazil’s Bovespa hit three-month lows while Germany’s Dax hit three-month highs and Italian shares hit 8-1/2-year highs.

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