Saudi Arabia may lower February price for Arab Light crude

That would mark a third monthly decline, extending losses from a premium of 60 cents a barrel for January, the lowest in five years

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is expected to lower the February price for its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers for a third month, mirroring declines in the spot market due to ample supplies, sources said.

The February official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude will likely fall 10-30 cents a barrel to a premium of 30 cents to 50 cents to the average of Oman/Dubai quotes, six Asia-based refining sources said in a Reuters survey.

That would mark a third monthly decline, extending losses from a premium of 60 cents a barrel for January, the lowest in five years.

The February OSP for Arab Extra Light may decline by 10-20 cents, while that for Arab Medium and Arab Heavy may stay the same or dip by 10 cents, the survey showed.

In the spot market, Dubai’s premium to swaps increased last week, after having fallen since October amid abundant supplies. It has averaged 61 cents per barrel so far this month, down from 88 cents in November, and is half of October’s average.

The pressure came from output hikes from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) as well as production growth in other producers.

Eight OPEC+ members have paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025.

Global oil supply will surpass demand by 3.84 million barrels per day in 2026, according to figures from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest monthly oil market report.