S&P Global shares drop on weak 2026 forecast

S&P expects adjusted per share profit for full-year 2026 in the range of $19.40 to $19.65, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $19.94, according to data compiled by LSEG

S&P Global forecast 2026 profit below U.S. stock market expectations on Tuesday, with growing investor unease over AI-driven disruption sweeping through the software and services sector, pushing its shares to their lowest in more than two years.

The company is grouped within the broader software and services sector because its core operations, including financial data provision, analytics and credit ratings, rely heavily on proprietary datasets and advanced computational tools.

S&P was pulled into last week’s broader market downturn, as a bruising tech rout sparked by concerns over rapid AI advances and their potential to reshape parts of the software and services sector rippled across the market.

The AI anxiety will likely linger, and the shares could be under pressure today unless there is a good explanation on the call, said analysts at ClearStreet.

S&P expects adjusted per share profit for full-year 2026 in the range of $19.40 to $19.65, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $19.94, according to data compiled by LSEG.

For the fourth quarter, the growth rate across several of its businesses, including ratings and indexes, slowed from the year earlier.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said the stock was under pressure after ratings’ segment transaction revenue growth weakened and market intelligence revenue and margins dropped short of expectations, alongside a softer full‑year outlook for both segments.

However, market intelligence was the only business unit that showed an increase in the quarterly growth rate, analysts added.

Shares of the analytics firm ended 9.7% lower and have dropped more than 20% so far this year. FactSet Research declined earlier in the session but ended up 0.8%, while Moody’s ended Tuesday with a 6.8% decline, as the pullback in S&P’s stock spilled over to its peers. Verisk dropped around 5% and Nasdaq declined 4.4%.

It remains unclear whether AI will ultimately depend on software infrastructure or replace it, but current market pricing is expressing the most bearish possible outcome, which we view as an overshoot at this time, analysts at JPMorgan said in a note.

Some analysts, however, say that companies with proprietary data and benchmarks such as S&P Global could be largely insulated, and that AI-driven efficiency gains may still lift margins and help shift sentiment on the stocks.