Exports in September are expected to have risen 10% from a year earlier
China’s exports likely posted a fourth straight month of gains in September as more trading partners reopened their economies, a Reuters poll showed, while imports are also expected to have edged back into growth.
Exports have not been as severely affected by the global slowdown as some analysts had feared, due in part to record shipments of medical supplies and robust demand for electronic products, adding to hopes for a sustained economic recovery.
In September, exports are expected to have risen 10% from a year earlier, according to a median estimate of a Reuters poll of 24 economists. Imports likely rose 0.3% on year, improving after back-to-back decline in July and August.
Exports in August rose a solid 9.5% year-on-year, the strongest gain since March 2019.
Stronger exports could signal a faster and more balanced recovery for the Chinese economy, which is rebounding from a record first-quarter slump thanks to domestic stimulus measures.
A manufacturing survey showed total new orders in September recorded the strongest increase since January 2011, and a gauge for new export orders–which were hit hard by the global outbreak of the coronavirus–rose at the fastest pace in over three years.
We expect both export and import growth to accelerate further in September. Global growth has continued to recover and strong global housing activity in recent months should support Chinese exports of furniture and appliances, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note last week.
Import growth may improve in September as well on the back of the solid expansion of domestic activities, they said.
However, external demand could suffer if virus control measures are re-imposed by trade partners due to a resurgence in infections.
China is meanwhile looking to reduce its reliance on overseas markets for development as U.S. tensions and the pandemic increase external risks that could hamper long-term progress.
Already heightened U.S.-China hostilities are expected to escalate ahead of the U.S. presidential election next month.
U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue earlier this month warned China may fall short of annual agricultural product purchasing commitments made in its Phase 1 trade deal with the United States.
The articles are for information purposes only and Precise Investors shall not be held responsible for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies within it. Any rules or regulations mentioned within the website are those relevant at the time of publication and may not be the most up-to-date.
Precise Investors does not endorse any of the products or services that appear on it or are linked to it and are not liable for any action that you may take as a result of the content of this website, or losses or damage you may incur doing so.
There is no obligation to purchase anything but, if you decide to do so, you are strongly advised to consult a professional adviser before making any investment decisions.
Please remember that investments of any type may rise or fall and past performance does not guarantee future performance in respect of income or capital growth; you may not get back the amount you invested.